THALKUCHI/BHUTAN BORDER: A platoon of 24-men Assam home guards is struggling to survive at Thalkuchi village in the Nalbari District of Assam. The boys have been assigned to guard the officials of the Brahmaputra Board at the Madaltana point since March 23,2001. It is the key point of much controversy-ridden Pagladiya dam project.

In fact, Thalkuchi village stands adjacent to the foot hills of the Bhutan border, a highly sensitive area about 26 kilometers from Nalbari township. Through this village, many cadres of ULFA and NDFB militants operate activities in between Nalbari and their camps in Bhutan.

Importantly , when this author recently visited the site for filing an investigative report a few boys of the camp told that heavily armed underground guerrillas pass through the camp. They are unable to do anything because they have been provided with a few 3.3 guns while the ultras come with AK-47 and AK-56 rifles.

The platoon is being assigned to check the eventualities arising out of starting the construction works of the Pagladia Dam Project from the effected people by the Brahmaputra Board.

It is a sad commentary that the boys of the platoon have been poorly paid daily wages as fixed by the board authority .A cadre gets only Rs 51 per day including food and lodging. That is, the home guards have to manage their food out of their daily wages. But the wages are paid irregularly.

Informing this, R.C Talukdar, Sub- inspector of Aram Branch who is supervising the platoon there said, "The daily wage rate is very low. It is too less to live. Most importantly, the Brahmaputra Board is not providing wages lately. The wage of April 2001 was paid on May 18. The payment of May was given on June 16.As a result, we are to purchase essential food items on credit from a particular shopkeeper of Kadamtala, an adjacent shopping centre. We are to owe even Rs 10,000 to the shopkeeper per month. On seeing the helpless young cadres of our camp, the kind hearted shopkeeper has not disagreed to supply primary articles on credit till date ,"Talukdar said.

The situation in this area is so tense that the officials of the Brahmaputra Board are afraid to visit the project site and the camp too. Therefore, they cannot keep contact with each other. Mr Talukdar sent messages to the divisional offices of the Board in Nalbari town through two master roll employees of Thalkuchi village requesting the authority to raise their wages and to pay the same in time. But the authority hardly hears the messages, Mr Talukdar alleged.

The Regional Passport Officer told this author that his office is enjoying good response regarding this scheme. According to him, Manipuris have availed the highest number of these passport among the Northeastern states. 'If you need a passport urgently then you require a verification certificate from any officer of the rank of Deputy Secretary and above in the Central Government or equivalent in the State Government, Colonel and above or its equivalent in Air Force and Navy, General Manager of a Public Sector Undertaking, Sub-Divisional Magistrate, SSP of district etc. An out of turn passport is issued only in cases of specified emergencies, on production of documentary evidence,' Mahato said.

Of late, the Regional Passport Office of Guwahati, serving six states of the Northeast, excluding Tripura, is reeling under acute shortage of manpower, accommodation and security problems. However, the revenue collection of this key department under Union Ministry of External Affairs has increased tremendously in the recent past.

'Though the work pressure of the office marked a three-fold increase and the revenue base also got widened tremendously, yet the Union Ministry of External Affairs did not increase its manpower. Now it has only 16 employees and six posts have been lying vacant for long. The office is also crammed due to space constraint. We urged the Ministry to do the needful at the earliest, but in vain. The Assam Government is ready to provide us a comfortable office building with wider space at the Housefed, Guwahati. But the Ministry is yet to okay the proposal. Moreover, I am the lone passport-issuing officer (PIO) in the office. I am to put my signature on every file. My table is full of files. Every regional office has an office superintendent and a PRO to assist the PIO like me. However, there is neither a PRO nor an office superintendent in their office, I have no stenographer too. In fact, no officer wants to come here and serve, as it is an insurgency prone region. We approached the state govt to send a superintendent on deputation, but had no response. The office is also facing a security problem. Since Assam Government declined to provide us security-men, we exhorted the Union Ministry of External Affairs to arrange for CRPF jawans to guard the office premises,' Mahato muttered.

Regarding the performance of this office he quipped that the office issues about 100 new passports per day and earn Rs 60,000- Rs 70,000 daily. During the financial year 1998-99, the office moped up Rs 46,80,810 as revenue, spent Rs 18,31,839, received 14,317 applications and issued 14,001 passports. In fiscal 1999-2000, it collected Rs 86,98,928 as revenue, spent Rs 22,18,127, received 20,025 applications and issued 16,930 new passports. In the last fiscal it raised nearly Rs 1 crore revenue and spent Rs 32,46,610 as expenditure.

Mahato further pointed out that the Centre has instructed the passport officers to get the (character) verification of the applicants hailing from Nagaland and Manipur by the Subsidiary Intelligence Bureau (SIB). Despite this instruction, Manipur is getting the maximum number of passports as her people go abroad to participate in cultural, religious and sporting events.

In may be recalled here the fact that former Union minister Ajit Panja pleaded for providing passports to all Indians at the cost of Rs 300 each. Earlier, for quick issue of passport, Tatkaal scheme was introduced. The changes during the recent past have been quite significant.

The number of Passport Offices has increased from 22 in 1990 to 28 today. 20 passport Applications Distribution and Collection Centres have also been set up. The Central Passport Organisation, with a budget of over Rs 80 crore and staff of nearly 2,500 personnel, has become an important wing of the Ministry of External Affairs, which is always in the glare of public security.

The Assam Ministry of Food and Civil Supplies is all set to initiate inquiry into the matter that a section of supply officials are pressurizing the traders in the city to pay ransom beyond rule. Importantly, the traders have brought allegations against the said supply inspectors, a few khaki-clad personnel, and 'local dadas' who impose 'gonda tax' on the traders dealing in food items like onion and potato. On this very plea, the traders have wanted to justify their stand on the recent price hike of potatoes and onions in the city.

The Potato and Onion Merchants Association, Guwahati has further said that the existing Assam Government Sales Tax of 8.8 % and the unscrupulous retailers are the responsible factors for a price spiral in onion and potato market.

But when contacted a section of city based retailers said that only wholesalers are responsible for the current inflation in onion and potato market as the latter raised the wholesale rates in June 2001, in comparison to May 2001.

The retailers alleged that though they are small traders yet they have to pay Rs 500 each to Supply Inspectors, Sales Tax officials and health officials during the Bihu festivals and Durga Puja. In the name of renewal of labour licenses, the departmental authority allegedly charge about Rs 200 from retailers. The Guwahati Municipal Corporation has also hiked its Municipal Tax almost five times. A particular shop of Guwahati Club area in the city had to pay Rs 250 as trade license renewal fee last year. The shopkeeper is paying Rs 1,260 as GMC fee this year.

Talking to this author the State Food Minister Ardhendu Kumar Dey said that he would initiate strong action against the supply officials if the wholesalers and retailers can provide him with the names of the officials who collect such 'gonda tax'. Dey assured to keep the names of the businessmen confidential.

'We are going to initiate an immediate inquiry into the matter. In the meantime, we have directed the department of Food and Civil Supplies to ask the retailers to display compulsorily a blackboard mentioning the prices of essential commodities,' the Food Minister informed.

When asked about the present stand on checking the malpractice of a section of supply officials, the Director of Food and Civil Supplies Jatin Gogoi asserted that the department is still examining the allegations of the traders against his officials.

'Strong actions will be initiated if the allegations are proved true. But there should be sufficient evidence', the Director declared.

'We are going to hold a meeting soon with the retailers to discuss various anomalies arising out of the artificial price-hike allegations. Future action will be followed in course of time. We have gone through the reports brought out by a section of media accusing our officials from time to time. We are to probe them in toto,' he added.

Interestingly, though the Food Minister claimed that instructions have been given to the supply officials to ask for displaying a price list of goods in a blackboard as a mandatory duty for the traders, few shopkeepers have of late displayed the same as supply officials have not yet intimated them of the order till filing this report.

Assam Finance Minister Says British Investors Will Get Preference In State Investment

British investors are well acquainted with the social, economic and political problems of Assam and, hence they should be invited first to invest in the state. The new Government will be seeking foreign investment, especially from the British captains of industry, to arrest the investment scarcity in the state soon, averred Debananda Konwar, Minister of Finance, Revenue and Power in Guwahati on Wednesday.

Talking to the author in an exclusive interview Konwar claimed that the Britishers know well all the problems and development potential of the state.

'I saw many British industrialists who often talked about Assam. They know our problems- the ethnic problem, social tension and economic crisis,' he said.

'We are examining the actual position of the state from the social, political and economic points of view. In this month we will chalk out a set of plans and programmes. In a sense, we are now studying 'where' we are standing and 'where' we can go. At this point, I am not in a position to disclose anything regarding this as people with vested interest might put 'blocks' on the way of our remedial measures. However, we may invite other foreign investors as well to invest in Assam,' said the minister.

Regarding the present financial condition of the state he said that the issue has been highlighted a number of times in the recent past. The condition, however, is not so grim as reported in a section of the media, he added.

He, however, remarked that the administrative expenditures of the state are mounting day by day due to tense law and order situation, as the state has to afford a huge outgoes on the security front.

He also pointed to the practice of resorting to the overdraft facility offered by the RBI. The volume of loan determined on the basis of ways and means and other advances from the apex bank, are not up to the mark as the payment period is on the decline, he said.

'The state largely depends on Central funds which are generally allotted for different plans and schemes. The World Bank is also keen to upgrade the infrastructure facilities and other development projects in the state. Of late, a few high-level bank officials visited the state and met us too. They are ready to invest more,' he informed.

In order to bail out the state from the current financial crunch, he said that the Government is all set to expand the revenue-base of the state by initiating urgent steps to root out the loopholes in revenue collections.

'Yesterday, I took strong action against the operation of a particular check-gate at a specific point. I think, Rs. 5 crore can be collected per month from this specific check-gate. We are also planning to widen our operations in checking the malpractice in different parts of the state,' he said.

As regards the acute power load-shedding across the state, Konwar quipped that the state has no power crisis. 'The management and services of ASEB are not based on efficiency'. The loopholes lie in T&D. Here T&D means not merely 'transmission and distribution', but rather 'theft and dacoity of power'. Unfortunately, there is none to buy the Board even if we try to privatise it. It's a huge loss-making unit. We will bail out the Board by plugging the loopholes,' he asserted.

According to him, all investors and business barons would like to invest in the state keeping the main motto ahead that there would be returns arising out of the investment. Notwithstanding, there is very little hope of getting back the returns from power sector investment, he said adding that 'even after we publish tender on ASEB sell-out, there will be none to respond.'

Have you ever realized that one of the main causes behind water logging in Guwahati city is the polythene rubbish that you recklessly throw away here and there? For many of us, finding answer to such a silly problem may be an act of 'playing silly buggers' when there are so many other important issues to discuss. But, there is no denying the fact that most of our household waste materials easily find their way into drains and a major constituent of the all these garbage are the plastic carry-bags.

You may be surprised to know that indiscriminate dumping of plastic waste including carry bags is the main reason of the recent water logging and contamination of city environment. Because of their extreme non-biodegradable nature these bags block the waste and drainage system, making sewage disposal a difficult task.

Weeds want no sowing. No one certainly drew a master plan to facilitate water-logging in the city. It just slips through the loopholes of our civic (?) behavior. The way we dispose of our garbage is the way to water-logging.

The main culprit behind the problem is the polythene bag that find its way to the garbage that stays littered everywhere. The garbage usually finds its way into the drains and more often than not the problem begins from here.

A study conducted by the Assam Pollution Control Board (APCB) shows that in residential and commercial areas, 50% of the unorganized domestic garbage finds place in drains.

A survey by the Assam Science Technology and Environment Council (ASTEC) indicates that out of the 292 tonnes of domestic garbage produced in the city per day, around 25 tonne are plastic materials including polythene carry-bags. From this high amount of garbage, the Guwahati Municipal Corporation (GMC) everyday handles around 185 tonnes of solid waste in an organized manner. The rest (107 tonne) is disposed of in an unorganized way by the households.

The APCB study has also found that out of the total polythene waste produced in the city per day, contribution of Pension Para area is the highest with 20% of the total. This is followed by Chenikuthi with 14%. The next is Karnachal with 11%, Fancy Bazar 8.5%, Uzan Bazar 6.6%, Paltan Bazar and Hengrabari 6% each, Professor Colony, Kamakhya Gate and Beltola 5% each and Mathura Nagar with 3%.

The study points out that plastic contains 8.6% of the total garbage in residential areas and 7% in commercial areas.

'The main harmful effect of plastic bag is its non-biodegradability. But what is most worrying is that since these bags are given by the vendors free of cost, they are never been reused. The large scale use of plastic bags every where and disposed of at random gives rise to ecological imbalance and environmental problems', says Chandan Bhaduri, regional executive engineer with the APCB.

Over the years, the use of polythene, specially carry-bags, has increased tremendously in towns, cities and even villages. Consumers get free bags to carry their purchases home with each and every items like- vegetables, fish, breads, eggs, pickles, milk products, sweets, dresses, clothes and other household commodities.

K.S. Chakrabarty, central laboratory analyst of the APCB, states that coloured polythene bags contain dyes which may contain small amount of heavy metals as impurities. Metals like lead, chromium, copper, iron, nickel are found in various coloured polythene bags.

'It is well-known that most of the heavy metals get slowly accumulated in our bodies and has high toxic effect on the physiology. Food materials that are consumed directly from the polythene packets without further processing, such as sweets, may absorb some metals if carried in such contaminated bags and can find their way into our body,' warns Chakrabarty.

As we all know is that the plastic materials do not get absorbed in the soil as it is not biodegradable. So these bags may cause many problems in modern day to day life. Moreover, while manufacturing the polythene bags a chemical compound called 'plasticizer' is used which can cause cancer according to the scientists.

As reported by Dr. S. I. Barbhuyan, MD of Gauhati Medical College, in a study, serious diseases like lungs cancer, vomiting, stomachache, constipation, liver damage, degeneration of heart, headache, bronchitis, chest pain, sleeplessness, respiratory problems, may occur from heavy metal poisoning.

According to APCB officials, the total number of plastic manufacturing units in Assam at present is 35. Of them, 17 produces recycled plastics and the rest virgin plastics.

As per the notice issued by the Kamrup district magistrate in December last year, vendors are prohibited from using carry-bags or containers made of recycled plastics for storing, carrying, dispensing or packaging of foodstuff. However, carry-bags and containers made of virgin plastic in natural shade or white colour are allowed. Recycled plastic manufactured as per 'IS-9833-1981' norm is permitted for purposes other than storing and packaging of food items.

As per the direction of the Union Environment and Forest Ministry the minimum thickness of carry-bags made of virgin plastics shall not be less than 20 microns and manufacturers must print on each carry-bag it is 'virgin plastic', says Bhaduri.

He goes on to add that in line with the Central government notification the APCB has requested all the 23 district administrations to execute the provisions of the rule concerning them.

People do not carry jute, cloth and paper-made containers to fetch goods from the market as these are not available. Apart from this, if plastic bags are dumped under the soil or spread recklessly over it, they become a hurdle to crop production as they block the porosity and capillarity of the soil; and the roots of the soil and plants will not get sufficient water that usually passes through the soil.

Burning of plastic is not safe either. As explained by the APCB analyst, when polythene is burnt a poisonous gas 'dioxin' is produced which poses strong health hazards for us.

A. B. Debchoudhury, another board official says, 'There can't be two opinions about the hazards created by the use of polythene bags. We are doing our best to create a public awareness. But, due to funds constraints, it has not yet been possible for the board to draw up a comprehensive plan in this regard.'

It needs not to be mentioned here that reckless dumping of plastic waste has been creating environmental and health hazards in the city. Is there any way out?

As suggested by a group of non-governmental organizations headed by the Assam Science Society- paper packets, cloth and jute packets may suitably replace the polythene bags without affecting the livelihood of those involved in this industry and disturbing the ecological system as these are easily biodegradable.

Above all, the experts this correspondent talked to were of the opinion, that an awareness should be created among the people in general to curb the rampant use of polythene. In doing so, the principle 'live and let live' should be followed so that the livelihood of those engaged in plastic manufacturing is not badly affected.

The Central Tuber Crops Research Institute has developed a flexible starch-based biodegradable plastic recently, which is going to be introduced in the Indian market in near future. Scientists claim, this type of polythene is not only environment-friendly but can be produced cheaply from the abundantly available starch. This discovery will surely alter the character of plastic trade in India.

Kunal Kanti Bhattacharjee

CD Ratio : Bleak future for Assam Banking

Credit-deposit ratio, or briefly CD ratio, is one of the important measuring rods to assess the role of banking system in an economy. And this, CD ratio, is nothing but the difference between the quantum of credit and the quantum of deposit. The CD ratio in Assam at present is not satisfactory at all in comparison to the all India average.

Many think-tanks say the CD ratio is down in Assam due to poor recovery rate of loans from the loonies. Government-sponsored self-employment generating schemes like PMRY, JRY etc. are also adversely affecting the CD ratio of the state. The low recovery rate has, indeed, made the bankers bound to think twice before granting a loan to an interested party. Of late, insurgency has appeared as a fresh obstacle on the way of rapid development of the banking sector in the state as well. Extortion drive is still seen in the ultra-prone areas of the state, which is neither encouraging for a customer to bank with, nor motivating an efficient banker to serve here risking one's life. In a word, Assam's banking sector is heading towards a 'bleak future'.

However, a few economic gurus from optimists' camp dismiss this as sheer pessimism as the state is embracing with the recent changes of the entire banking network in other states of the country today. For a living example, the State Bank of India has introduced Automatic Teller Machine to make the customer-oriented services dynamic in a branch of greater Guwahati.

Statistically, state's bank deposits and credits present a gloomy picture. The deposits, which are in a deplorable state, from only Rs 48 crore in 1969 has recorded a substantial rise to more than Rs 7,000 crore in 1999. Notwithstanding, their low level would be clear from the point that though the state accounts for 2.1 % of the country's bank branches, here bank deposits constitute only 1.04 % and this is reflected in poor level of per capita bank deposits in the state at Rs 1,148 in 1994 as against Rs 2,939 in India as a whole. There are two reasons for this flaw in Assam banking system. First, the income generation and the level of economic activity of the states is low. Secondly, a substantial part of the income generated flows out of the state due to repatriation of profit, remittance of earnings and payment for large scale import bill.

Accordingly, the condition of per capita credit is still worsening in the state at around Rs 700 against all India average of more than Rs 1,700. The amount of bank advances in Assam at Rs 1998 crore in 1999 accounts for only 0.8 % of the country's total and the per capita figure constitutes less than 40 % of the all India average. The low level of asset holding of borrowers has all along precluded the banks from coming out with sufficient advances in the state. The low absorption capacity of bank credit is also explained by other factors like lack of congenial atmosphere for investment, dearth of entrepreneurial enthusiasm, poor infrastructure, non-availability of collateral security, poor recovery rate and lack of promising projects.

According to a report, the CD ratio in the state is too low and has gone down from 43 % in 1991 to less than 33 % in 1999 as against 56 % in the country as a whole. However, a state government survey claims that with the expansion of banking facilities over the years there has been some augmentation not only in the volume of deposits but also in the volume of deployment of credit by scheduled commercial banks in Assam.

Let us now proceed to focus on the recent development in banking sector of the state in pursuit of Assam Economic Survey, 1997-98, which was published last year.

The banking network in Assam has shown some expansion during the recent years. There were only 491 branches of scheduled commercial banks in the state in December, 1980 and it increased to 1,233 in December, 1999 (Banking Statistics, RBI). The average population covered by each bank office (based on the estimated population of 1997) in the state stands at 21,000 in 1997-98 which is however much below the all-India average of 15,000 population during the same year.

Majority of the bank offices in the state are located in rural areas. Out of the total bank branches of 1,241 as on March, 1998, as many as 841 branches (i.e. about 68 %) are located in the rural areas while 151 and 249 bank offices are situated in urban and semi-urban areas respectively accounting for 12.2 % and 20.1 % of the state total.

Assam's CD ratio in the recent years : With the expansion of banking facilities over the years there has also been some augmentation not only in respect of volume of deposits but also in respect of deployment of credit by these banks. The aggregate deposits with schedule commercial banks in the state which was Rs 4,634.79 crore in December 1996 increased to Rs 5,672.10 crore in December 1997, and then to Rs 6,021.58 crore in March, 1998 over December, 1997 while the increase was 18.4 % in March 1998 over March, 1997. However, Assam accounts for a very small fraction (1.02 % only) of the total deposits of scheduled commercial banks of the country in March, 1998. In respect of per capita bank deposit, the position of Assam is found to be very unsatisfactory as it was Rs 2,341 only during March, 1998 as against Rs 6,220 at national level during the corresponding period.

The deployment of credit by scheduled commercial banks of the state shows that the same is maintaining a more or less similar trend as observed in case of bank deposits. The volume of total credit deployed by these banks was Rs 1,726.18 crore as on December, 1996 which increased to Rs 1925.83 crore as on December, 1997 and then to Rs 1978.24 crore as on March, 1997. As on March, 1998 Assam accounts for a meagre 0.60 % of the total deployment of credit in the country as a whole. The credit-deposit ratio of scheduled commercial banks in Assam has been worked out at 32.8 % in March. 1998 but it is quite unsatisfactory when compared to 55.5 % at all India level.

Sectoral deployment of credit : The data on occupation wise distribution of outstanding credit of scheduled commercial banks reveals that in Assam industrial sector occupies the top with Rs. 741.10 crore i.e. 39.5 % of the total outstanding credit of industry sector, the share of tea processing and small scale industry sector were Rs. 191.66 crore and Rs. 184.94 crore respectively. The trade sector occupies the next position in respect of outstanding credit with Rs. 3.29.31 crore followed by agriculture sector with Rs. 319.44 crore and artisans and village industries which Rs. 39.59 crore.

Regional Rural Banks : Rural people are served by a network of the Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) in Assam with a total number of 405 branch offices as on March, 1998. The volume of deposits with these banks aggregated Rs. 493.98 lakh at the end of March, 1998 as against Rs. 390.00 lakh in March, 1997. The volume of credit deployed by these banks was Rs. 202.03 lakh as on March, 1998 as against Rs. 194.93 lakh as on March, 1997. Thus, the rate of rise of deposit and credit over the year was 26.7 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively.

Small savings : The position of Assam in the field of mobilisation of small savings is very satisfactory during the recent years. The total volume of gross savings collection in the state during 1996-97 was Rs. 723.03 crore while the net saving collection was reported at Rs. 176.76 crore during the same year. Similarly, during the year 1995-96 the volume of gross savings collection was Rs. 752.10 crore and the next savings collection was Rs. 210.07 crore.

All types of small savings schemes such as Kishan Vikash Patra (KVP), Indira Vikas Patra (IVP), NSC-VIII, post office time deposit, post office savings accounts etc. have fetched good response in the state.

Since the banking system assists the state economy not only through deployment of credit but also through investment in state government securities, shares and bonds of state level bodies, quasi-government institutions, joint stock companies etc., the ratio of investment plus credit to deposits (ICD ratio) would really reflect the total involvement of bank funds in various economic activities of the state in collaboration with deposits mobilised. The ICD ratio came down from 95 % in 1981 to 83 % in 1988 in Assam when the states like Karnataka, Orissa and Tamil Nadu accounted for 102 %, 130 % and 104 % respectively. Thus, in comparison to the backward nature of the state, it is not only that the ICD ratio has remained at low level but also that the bank investment funds have flowed into those state level bodies which made least contribution to Assam economy mainly due to insufficiency, mismanagement, political interference and lack of proper planning.

In the modern times, banking plays a very vital role in raising the overall economic growth of an economy. So to say, an improved banking network is a must for the rapid development of Assam economy. And, with a view to curbing the poor recovery rate vis-a-vis low CD ratio, comprehensive awareness drives should be initiated both by the bankers and NGOs. Here the contributions to the history of rural banking by Mohammed Yunnus-led The Grameen Bank of Bangladesh can be recalled as typical instances for boosting banking system in Assam today.

A.K. PAUL

Tarun Gogoi Tours A Long Political Journey To Be Assam Chief Minister : A Profile

As is well known, the veteran Congress leader Tarun Gogoi has toured a long political journey to come out as the 16th Chief Minister of Assam. He hails from Rangajan Tea Estate of Titabor in the district of Jorhat and now has settled down at Beltola Survey, Ajanta Path, in the Guwahati city. He was born on April 1, 1936.

Born to late Dr Kamaleswar Gogoi and late Usha Gogoi, Mr Gogoi has six brothers and three sisters. A graduate in Law from the Jorhat Law College, he practiced his calling till 1968. Then his career took a different turn when he became a member of the Jorhat Municipal Board. Married on July 30, 1972, to Mrs Dolly Gogoi, he has a son and a daughter. Worth mentioning that Gogoi is nephew to the celebrated Assamese poet Ganesh Gogoi.

A victory in the 5th Lok Sabha elections in 1971 provided him with ample opportunity to work for the betterment of his natives. Later, he was elected the joint-secretary of All India Congress Committee (AICC) in 1976. It was his maiden entry to the national level politics of the Congress. Re-elected to the 6th Lok Sabha in 1977, he became victorious in the 1983 elections as well and became a member of the Parliament for the third consecutive term. The same year, he, for the second time, became the joint-secretary of the AICC. He served as the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president from 1986 to 1990. Later, when he was elected to the 10th Lok Sabha for the 4th term, he remained a vice-president of the APCC.

A die-hard Congressman, Gogoi was inducted into the Cabinet as Union Minister of State (independent charge), Ministry of Food in 1991 and he held this charge till 1993. He was also the Union Minister of Food Processing Industry from 1993 to 1995. He remained a member of the Assam Legislative Assembly from 1996 to 1998. He has been the president of the APCC since 1996. In 1998, he got elected to the 12th Lok Sabha for the fifth term. During the period 1998-99, Gogoi served as a member of three committees--Committee on Government Assurances, Committee on External Affairs and Consultative Committee (Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas). He was also a member of Committee on Railways during the financial year 1999-2000.

Interestingly, Gogoi has a special attention for kids on the line of Lal Bahadur Sastri. He was once the treasurer of All Assam Moina Parijat, an organization for the children in the state.

Showed keen interest in the upliftment of the youth, whom he considers the hope of the future Assam, Gogoi has actively associated himself with a number of youth bodies which include amongst others Bharat Yuvak Samaj. He was once the chairman of this organization too. Above all, he was the director of Bayudoot, a member of Assam Bar Council, the Chairman of Assam Small Scale Industries Development Corporation, Vice-president of J.B. College Students' Union and Assam Inter-College Students Union respectively, the Joint-Secretary of Jorhat Law College and a commander of Students' Volunteer Crops.

A man who has traveled far and wide, he is also interested in reading and gardening and is a keen follower of sports and maritime activities.

It needs no mention that the advocate-turned-politician Gogoi has been leading his party successfully for the last five years after the unfortunate demise of Congress heavyweight and former state Chief Minister Hiteswar Saikia.

His steady maneuvering led his party to an outstanding victory in the just concluded Assembly election. He projected his brother Dip Gogoi, an active Congress worker and advocate by profession, for the Titabor LAC as a 'dummy candidate' who now declares to step down for his brother Tarun Gogoi who is being assigned to work as the Chief Minister of Assam as per directives of the AICC chief Sonia Gandhi. Notably, Gogoi projected his brother Dip as 'dummy candidate' because most of the MPs, who have contested last Assembly polls, projected their nearest kin's as 'dummy candidates'. Adopting the same election strategy Gogoi has projected his brother as a 'dummy candidate'.

Whatsoever, Gogoi seems to be eager to usher in a new era of 'development for peace', which is the main slogan of the APCC today. Gogoi, who was addressing newspersons after his selection as the Congress Legislative Party leader, said that he was keen for peace parleys with the militants for a long term solution to the insurgency issue both politically and economically. He said that his first priority would be to provide a stable government and solve the militancy menace for the all-round development of the state besides solving the unemployment problem and adopting a special policy for the youth.

He also stressed the need for revamping the education policy with emphasis on vocational training and information technology to make it employment-oriented.

To sum up, the Central Government seems to have used the bogey of fiscal indiscipline to tame the outgoing AGP government. Once rapport with the Centre was achieved, fiscal indiscipline no longer remained a contentious issue. But given the extremely modest income of the state, and the demands on it, room for extravagance or wasteful expenditure would seem to be extremely limited. In a sense, a layman hopes that the Gogoi-led government will remain properly conscious of the necessity of thrift and moderation. A Guwahati-based PWD contractor said: 'I spent Rs 20,000 to send a Congress man to get party nomination in New Delhi by flight. The candidate has won in the election. Hence I must get at least Rs 2 lakh benefit from him.' Thousands of elite's, likewise, invested ransom to eat cream from Congress Government. Gogoi should minimise such corruption-related moves. Otherwise his holistic goal of 'development for peace' will never come up to the sight and will only remain confined to papers.

What will you do if an earthquake of high intensity hits your area and the world around you suddenly starts spinning? Rush out from the four walls under a concrete-roof and hunt for shelter under an open sky ? But, once out of your house you may be in for another shock. There may not be enough room outside for you to make you feel safe and secure. Because open space in the city is increasingly playing the vanishing trick.

For the Guwahatians living in multistoried apartments, is there ample open space in and around the city to accommodate them during the occurrence of such a disaster? The answer is obviously "no".

A study on status of open space in Guwahati conducted by the Assam Science Society concludes that the city will be left with no open space at all if the present land utilization rate continues. Residential areas are exerting strong pressure on land and competing with open space for the limited land resources, it says. So during a disaster, lack of open space can turn out to be a greater killer than the disaster itself as has been tragically proved by the congested city of Bhuj.

Free air is a rare commodity in the cities of today's world. So open spaces are aptly called the 'lungs' of the city. Open spaces with greenery play a major role in reducing the effects of pollution. Not only this, they also facilitate recreational activities. And man needs recreation not only for fun, but it is much vital to a normal and healthy life as scientists have pointed out.

Science says the crowded cities must have open areas in the from of parks, playing grounds with wet-land in and around them for generating fresh air and maintaining ecological balance. But the scenario in Guwahati is discouraging. Residents are utilizing every available square foot of land around their houses for commercial purposes.

Developed open space is woefully lacking. Most of the parks and playgrounds are only at the centre of the city which also houses other commercial establishments leading to congestion. Lack of proper urban planning, initiatives from all concerned are the main factors responsible for the present situation, the Assam Science Society (ASS) study points out. An interesting fact revealed by the study is that out of the 25 parks listed on the Guwahati Municipal Corporation (GMC) records, eight are either only on papers or do not exist in reality and the rest are in pitiable condition.

The study finds that the proportion of open space has fluctuated over the years due to fluctuations in the city's boundary. In 1957-58 when the city had an area of 1,124.2 hectares, just over half the area was developed. But in the next four years, the proportion of developed land increased sharply to almost 70 % although the city's area increased only slightly to 1361.2 hectares.

In 1980, when a survey of land-use was conducted by the state town and country planning department, it was found that more than 80 % of the Guwahati master-plan area was open space. A decade later, it came down to 53 %. Most of the residential areas in the city have taken over agricultural and vacant land and also the low-lying land, the proportion of which has been reduced from 9 % in 1980 to 4 % in 1991, the study says. If this trend continues almost all the open space will be taken over by residential areas, it warns. Although there are sufficient unorganized open spaces in the city, developed open space in terms of parks, playgrounds are lacking. In 1957, 58 parks and playgrounds constituted only 1 % of the total area of the city. Over the years the proportion has come down to almost zero. Not only is the open space shrinking but more alarming is the encroachment over existing parks and playgrounds. However, in this regard, position of the western part of the city is to some extent better, where the university and other public institutions like the Engineering College have served as a barrier for residential ingress.

Open spaces cannot be considered in isolation. In case of Guwahati, as the study says, it will be most difficult because of physical barrier of hills on three sides and the river Brahmaputra on the other, making it difficult to expand horizontally. If steps are not taken to conserve the existing underdeveloped open space and develop them into space for small recreational activities, rapid rise of population in the coming days will convert them into residential areas, the study says. An interesting fact is that the Guwahati master-plan had proposed to develop 1,430 hectares of open space and 6,600 hectares of residential area by the 2001. However, a study undertaken by the ARSAC, Guwahati, showed that by 1990 itself residential area in greater Guwahati had already covered almost 10,000 hectares of land, 3,400 hectare more than the master-plan envisaged.

Not only this, of the 5,000 hectares earmarked for agriculture in the plan, 4600 hectares have already gone in 1991. Thus only 90 hectares have been developed as open space out of the proposed 1,430 hectares which is 6.29 %. This clearly points to huge conversion of open space into residential areas despite planning.

According to the study, by the end of 2001 the total requirement for developed open space in the city will be to the tune of 3,775.085 hectares. It suggests a large tract of land starting from the Bhutnath ground to Uzanbazar Ghat can be developed as a large space of greenery along the river banks. This open space can cater to the whole city. It also says that the space above the oil pipeline passing through this zone can be made into mini parks and playgrounds. It may be mentioned here that the area covered by the pipeline in this zone comes to around 45 hectares.

The Gujarat quake has been an eye-opener for the Guwahatians. Living in a high seismic zone, they now realize the importance of open space more than they did before. Wise men learn from the past. After the Gujarat incident, the importance of open space has increased much more than it was ever before. Guwahatians living in high seismic zone today have an innate need to experience sufficient open space. Besides, open space with greenery also plays a major role in reducing the effects of pollution.

What the government is doing in this regard ? As said by the joint secretary of the Assam Science Society Najibuddin Ahmed, who was a crew in carrying out the study, 'Till date the government has not paid any heed to it, the report is only gathering dust.'

Since people in power here usually get wiser after the event passes, a disaster must precede government's shaking off lethargy. This means that the Guwahatians will have to pay a heavy price in life and property for the government to come to action. Wake up calls come only when a disaster strikes. Perhaps, the government will poke its nose when everything will be over. But till then we can only remind 'prevention is better than cure'.

Kunal Kanti Bhattacharjee

The Untold Story On Palmolein Scam

India is passing through a rough weather. It is rough weather in the sense that she is witnessing a plethora of shameful stories on graft. At the national level, Congress-NDA's ding-dong battle on scam is escalating day by day. Besides this, scams on Bofors gun deal, telecom, railways, stock market, customs and fertilizers have already gained ground.

In Assam almost all state departments have become the hotbed of large-scale corruption. Only for this sole cause, a number of scam cases have cropped up in the state. For example, LOC scam, Palmolein oil scam etc. Masterminded villains give final shape to their scam plans by utilizing the multi-lated loopholes in the administrative mechanism. Say for instance, there is no transparency in the system. So, there is no accountability. The greedy devils dared to lift cream off 'public welfare oriented' schemes and, hence, overall development of the state is stalled nowadays. It is really a pathetic scene. As the absence of an 'actual monitoring system' hits hard on the so-called public distribution system (PDS) under the directorate of food and civil supplies, the villains of Palmolein Oil Scam have tactfully misused the system. Interestingly, two former food ministers of Assam have been reportedly involved in this multi-crore scam. The ministers belong to the Congress camp and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). For a change, the AGP and Congress are agreeing on the issue. Both parties are desperate to ensure that the CBI does not go ahead with the case against two former ministers. In the meantime, the CBI has gathered 'sufficient evidence' against these ministers- namely Ardhendu Dey (Congress) and Digen Borah (AGP) and is in possession of vital documents which 'confirm' their involvement in the scam. Both the AGP and the Congress were putting pressure on the CBI not to carry forward its investigation as neither party wanted a scandal involving their leaders with the Assembly elections knocking on May 10. Though Borah has been sidelined by the leadership for his 'misdemeanors', the AGP leadership did not want to give the Opposition a stick to beat with. The same is the case with the Congress, for whom Dey is a 'winnable candidate'. But what is the actual story about? The genesis of the story is as follows: Palmolein is largely used in biscuit bakeries to prepare cakes, breads etc. It is just like saturated vegetable ghee such as Dalda . During early Nineties, the Centre decided to sell palmolein at a subsidized rate through the PDS. Again, this PDS is nothing but a process of distributing essential commodities like rice, kerosene, sugar etc. all by the respective state governments. That is, the government runs the system and people utilizes it by showing 'ration cards'. Precisely PDS is a rationing system.

Having said that Palmolein was included as a PDS item, it is also significant that this oil was marketed by State Trading Corporation Limited (STCL), a Central government undertaking company. R.S. Lyngdoh was the then General Manager of STCL, Guwahati office. Lyngdoh, a few ministers and city-based business barons had allegedly set up a lobby to divert the Palmolein from PDS to the open market for the sake of bakery-supply on the basis of some fake allotment and fictitious authorising letters. The move was unfair in Toto. As per allegation, the Assam Government had approached the Union Ministry of Consumer Affairs and PDS to raise the allotment of palmolein in view of the Christmas festival in 1996. On the basis of this request letter from the State, the Centre supplied a substantial quantity of Palmolein oil, which was sold in the open market in hush manner. As per reports, a sum of Rs 4.27 crore was absorbed by the villains of this scam. Out of this amount, Rs 50 lakh was allegedly lifted by Prabhu Dayal Deorah, the key man behind the scandal. The CBI has already sorted out almost all the businessmen and link characters involved in this scam. The nodal investigating agency has already arrested four accused persons including the prime accused Deorah. He was nabbed by the CBI last year and released on bail. Currently, the defence counsels of three other accused are seeking bail from Special Judge and Gauhati High Court, but in vain. Whereas, six other big traders of the city remain absconding as the court has rejected their anticipatory bail petitions. In fact, the CBI arrested Deorah, a reputed business baron of the entire Northeast, on January 6, 2000 after conducting search operations at his five residential premises in Guwahati, Shillong, Tura, William Nagar and Khetri. On the basis of a 'source information' the CBI raided Deorah's residents and registered a case No RC12(A)/98-Shillong. The CBI in its forwarding petition said that while investigating the case under Sections 120,420,468,471 of Indian Penal Code and Section 13(2) read with 13(1) of the Prevention of Corruption Act 1988. It was found that with the help of fake allotment orders purportedly issued by the Assam Govt. during the financial years 1994-95, 1995-96 and 1996-97, Palmolein oil quotas were allotted by the STCL to the State Govt. for distribution through ration cards under PDS. The scam accused persons used different commercial banks and cooperative banks for drawing bank pay-orders in favour of the STCL, Guwahati, specially from Assam and Mizoram. During these financial years against 184 delivery orders, a total quantity of 1487.811 metric tonnes of Palmolein oil worth about Rs. 4.27 crore were lifted in the name of Samabay Sammittees or Cooprative Societies on dubious allotment of Food and Civil Supplies department at the district-level of the state, the authorisation letters were issued by the Samabay Sammittees. Investigation has proved that the allotment orders and authorisation letters produced for lifting the materials from the STCL were fictitious in Toto. The accused persons were actively involved in the manufacturing of the fake records on the basis of which palmolein quotqs were lifted from the STCL, Guwahati. Meanwhile, the CBI seized many incriminating documents in its search operations in different places of the city recently. It is worthwhile to mention that though the CBI Public Prosecutor A.K. Deb pleaded for further judicial custody for Deorah on January 17'2000 on the ground of he being an 'influential person' may try to tamper evidence and may resort to hamper the progress of investigation related to the multi-crore scandal. However, the then Special Judge K.K. Das released the accused on bail of Rs 50,000 considering his old age (60). He was arrested on January 6'2000, was in CBI custody till January 14 on which he was remanded to judicial custody. While granting the bail the judge directed the accused not to leave station without prior permission from the Special Court. He was informed that he has to cooperate with the CBI if the latter requires him. The court also directed Deorah not to try destroying evidences relating to the scandal. Others are likely to be directed to do the same thing if the present Special Judge H.Baruah grants their bail petitions. To sum up, scams do always adversely affect the socio-economic health of every state economy. Only prompt judgment, followed by adequate proceedings, can minimize the events on graft. For, it is well known that "justice delayed is justice denied". Moreover, awareness drives against corruption and other allied issues should be initiated both by NGOs and government institutions keeping in view the 'ethical base' to promote the Nehruvian socialist pattern of society in India today.

A.K. Paul (The author is a freelance writer).

Answer: See, Assam's economy was very much developed once upon a time, particularly before the Independence. On the basis of per capita income its position was fifth from the top. Up to the 1980s the growth rate equaled the all India growth average. But degradation started thereafter. Today, the state's per capita income is listed among the six from the bottom.

In my view, the main reason behind economic backwardness is transportation bottlenecks. The Partition was a curse for the entire region. Rightly speaking, the region was virtually cut off from the mainstream of the country and till today it has not been able to shake off the constraints. Moreover, loss of linkage has rendered costly all items and commodities, whether imported or exported.

Secondly, the leadership in Assam is though good at political level, at economic level it is much poor. Our leaders have failed to adopt long-term economic strategies for overall development of the state, and even if there are some initiatives at some level sometimes there is no subsequent follow-up.

In Assam, 89 percent of the population lives in rural areas and 75 percent of them depend on agriculture for their livelihood. So, without promoting agriculture there cannot be any real economic development in the state. Our agriculture sector has high potentials for growth. This is because our procurement is low and farmers only go in for mono-cropping. For improvement, we can go in for multiple-cropping. Besides, in areas like fisheries, poultry, animal husbandry etc. we have high possibilities. Therefore, all effects should be made to develop the agriculture sector. Unfortunately, the government has so far spent very little on this.

Q: For economic development should we lay equal stress on all sectors or more stress on some particular sectors?

A: Well, looking into the present scenario, the prime thrust must be on areas where we have advantages. At the same time, keeping in mind the transportation bottlenecks, we should go in for businesses that are precious in value. This may be on oil and gas, agriculture, forest resources like bamboo-canes, tourism, and Information Technologies.

Q: The state is industrially backward. What measures do you suggest to stimulate industrialization?

A: Assam's is mainly an agricultural economy and in my opinion industrialization cannot be initiated without accelerating agricultural development. Promoting growth in this sector means raising the income level of 70 percent of the population which live in the rural areas. If their income is raised, industrialization will automatically follow up. For, with disposable income available, people will go in for higher consumption and this in turn will increase demand for goods and services. Standard of living will improve and people will chase better things in life.

For industrialization, market is necessary. According to a study, consumable items of around Rs. 15,000 crore were imported by the North-East during the year 1997. So, the North-East provides a vast market without doubt. Only thing that has to be done now is to modernize the agricultural production techniques.

Q: The state lacks adequate infrastructure facilities. What role should the Central and the State governments play to build up an infrastructure conducive to the growth of various industrial and agricultural sectors?

A: The Central government should implement the Shukla Committee report, which suggested a strategy for improvement of infrastructure in the region. Although, the Centre has allotted Rs. 10,000 crore for infrastructure build-up, yet it is in nature a long-term plan and may not have immediate impact.

Secondly, intra-regional transportation facilities should be developed. All the states in the north-eastern region should be well connected through rail and road transport. For easy movement of goods, double lining and gauge conversion of railways are necessary.

In Assam only about 15 to 20 % of the total roadways are blacktopped. Look at Gujarat and other developed states where more than 90 % of the roads are metal led. Rapid industrialization is not possible unless you have improved road connections. So, this matter should be immediately looked into.

Thirdly, the power situation should be improved. Uninterrupted electricity supply is a pre-requisite for industrial development. Unless self-reliance in power generation is achieved the state will be lagging behind. We have huge hydro-power resources and I believe this problem can be overcome.

Q: Do you think that unfavourable law and order condition in the region stands in the way of industrialization?

A: Good law and order environment is a pre-condition for speedy economic prosperity. People will not come and invest here if they perceive a threat to their life and property. Nobody will set up an industry in a place where 77 bandhs are observed in a year. Not only this, frequent killings and extortion threats have become a regular feature here.

Q: At what stage the development of banking services in the North-East, particularly Assam, is in comparison to the developed states of the country?

A: Banking sector in the region is not at a very satisfactory stage. Number of bank branches (on population basis) is less here compared to other states. The credit deposit ratio (CDR) is also less, which at present is 30 percent. No branch of industrial bank at the district level is available. Added to the woe, all-India-financing-institutions put only 0.5 percent of their total sanctions in the region, which is discouraging.

In order to give a boost to the banking services, I feel, the state government should improve the recovery position. The credit deposit ratio should also be raised.

Q: What importance would you like to attach to tourism sector in Assam?

A: Tourism has taken the shape of an industry all over the world with the changing times. It can generate huge job opportunities and contribute towards growth of ancillary services. This region has a vast scope to develop fast in this area. But for sustained growth a conducive environment (good law and order) is needed. Unfortunately, this environment cannot always be found here.

Q: The leading trade and industrial circles here advocate marketing tie-ups and trade links with South-Asian countries. What is your view in this regard?

A: Trade links with neighbouring countries are unnecessary to promote economic development in the region. As I have said earlier transportation problem is one of the root causes responsible for our backwardness. Poor transportation system has been retarding economic growth of the North-East since the Independence. The only way to connect it with other parts of the world, and for cheaper movement of goods and services, is to establish land, water and air navigation routes with these countries. For example, the surface distance between Agartala and Calcutta is 1,500 km, but if you go via Bangladesh the distance becomes only 350 km. Likewise, the distance from Agartala to Chittagang Port is 75 km and if the port is used for border trade, the region will benefit and transportation cost will also come down.

Q: Since Independence migration from the neighbouring Bangladesh or erstwhile East Pakistan has remained a thorny issue in our socio-political agenda. Do you think it will come in the way of our proposed enhanced trade with Bangladesh?

A: See, you cannot solve the infiltration problem from the Bangladesh until and unless their economy is developed. In Bangladesh, the land-man ratio is 900 people per square kilometer whereas in Assam, the ratio is 280 people per square kilometer. The pressure on land there is much higher than that of us. People migrate to the region in search of greener pastures. It's a question of economic underdevelopment. If both the sides build up better trade and commerce activities, the economic condition will improve and this crisis can be turned into an opportunity.

A Brief Review of Earthquakes in North-East

Earthquake is an unpredictable natural phenomenon. Till date, scientists do not have any full fledged system to forecast exact time and occurrence of an earthquake. Very recently, a tremor of high intensity rocked Gujarat and unfortunately our seismologists did not have any indication or information about that before its actual occurrence. We came to know about that only after the devastation took place. After the Gujarat disaster and the North-East being declared a 'high risk zone' a fear psychosis has developed among the people of the region that a tremor of high magnitude ( greater than Gujarat, may be 8.0 on the Richter scale) might strike the region leaving scale of death and destruction higher than Gujarat. The fear is natural. But before being scared of debris of an earthquake let us now examine the seismic environment of the North-East, particularly Assam.

The North-East falls under 'Seismic 5' zone. It spreads through the mountain region of Tibet and upper Arunachal Pradesh. In this area, the possibility of a strong quake occurring every few years is indicated by records. Scientists feel that the region may experience a quake of magnitude 7.0 to 8.0 any time.

During last 50 years, too many earthquakes have been recorded in the epi-central areas so as to make us aware of the intensity that can be expected in the region. In the Brahmaputra river itself considerable changes have occurred. At Kabo, near its junction with Dibang and Lohit rivers, the river has silted up by 8 to 10 ft. At Dibrugarh about 5 to 6 ft of silting has occurred. The town was completely eroded away. Due to shifting shoals, considerable changes have occurred in its navigable channels. Steamer navigation terminates at Disangmukh, 64 kms below Dibrugarh. The consequent widening of the river bed caused considerable erosion at Sadiya, which subsequently had to be abandoned when the Dibang river, changing its course, started flowing through the town.

1950 Quake

At about 7.40 pm on August 15, 1950, one of the most disastrous earthquakes in history caused widespread devastation throughout upper-Assam, particularly Lakshimpur and Sibsagar districts. The shocks lasted for a period ranging from four minutes to eight minutes in the severely affected areas. The seismological observation centre at Pune has declared the epicentre to lie at 29 N latitude and 97 E longitude, about 50 kms from the north eastern border of India. The tremor was rated at magnitude 8.6 on the Richter scale. There were 12 after-shocks of magnitude more than 6 in the first 24 hours after the main shock, 23 more in the next three days of the main shock and 77 within a month.

The quake was of tectonic origin and was caused by the sudden fracture of a portion of the earth's crust, or by relative movement along old fault planes.

Apart from widespread damage to buildings, bridges, railway lines and roads in upper Assam, it caused widespread landslides, particularly in Abor and Mishmi hills and caused tremendous changes in the rivers.

For a given location, more than the magnitude of an earthquake it is the intensity of shocks that is important. According to the plate-tectonic concept, the North Eastern plate is causing deformation and instability in the Brahmaputra basin area, which are reflected in the origin of the mountains and frequent seismic events in the area. The main features which have a bearing on the quakes of the basin are-- boundary fault and other thrusts in Arunachal Himalayas, Dawki fault, Chidrang fault, Dhubri fault, Madupur fault, Naga thrust and Lohit thrust.

The 1897 earthquake had its epicentre in Shillong plateau and had a magnitude of 8.7 on the Richter scale. It has been described as probably the greatest earthquake that has occurred anywhere during historic times. It was felt over an area of 45,00,000 sq.km, with aftershocks continuing for 10 years. The effect of the quake was widespread in North Lakhimpur district where it developed 60 cm deep and 9 meter long fissures with outpouring of sand and water in the area along the Subansiri river. The entire lower portion of the basin was effected right upto Goalpara district.

The intensity of shocks depends upon the distance of the epicentre of the earthquake from the location. Amongst the severe ones since 1762, that of 1762, 1822, 1865, 1869, 1897, 1908, 1937 and 1950 are notable. In magnitude, they range between 6 and 8 on the Richter scale. Immediately after the earthquake several tributaries of the Brahmaputra, particularly the Subansiri, the Dibang and the Tiding, as also the upper reach of the Brahmaputra, were blocked by landslides. The Subansiri dried up after the shock on account of a silt-dam which formed across the river at Siphu-Subansiri confluence. The tremor and sudden flood took a toll of about 50,000 lives. A large part of the flooded area silted up, unfit for cultivation.

So far, seismic study of the region has been limited. Recently, steps have been taken to set up a few micro earthquake recording stations in this area. A network of such stations should be planned and regular observations should be done for the planning and designing of various projects including stabilization of hill-slopes.

Sources :

Report of Assam Earthquake, 1950, by M C Poddar.

Geological Survey of India bulletin.

International Association of Earthquake Engineering journal.

Comprehensive plan for Brahmaputra Basin (Vol-1).

Of late, the GMCH has become country's biggest hospital in terms of bed capacity (1,500). About three lakh outdoor patients from the entire Northeast and even from West Bengal come here for treatment every month, GMCH authorities have claimed this recently. To meet the growing demand for clinical tests from patients, the GMCH has, of late, installed a few sophisticated machines. However, many observes have alleged the GMCH authority of not recruiting trained staff to run the machines and of unnecessarily delaying the operation of these machines.

For instance, it was pointed out that a new sophisticated machine named Auto Analyser was installed in the Biochemistry Department recently under the Central Clinical Laboratory section of GMCH. But this machine (costing around Rs.28lakh) has not been utilized till now owing to the lack of trained personnel. It is learnt that three Assistant Professors are undergoing initial training to operate the machine. The training is being imparted by P Das, Diagnostic Engineer of M/s Ranboxy through which the machine has been purchased from M/s Dade Behring, A USA-based company.

Well-placed officials of the GMCH said that the authority has installed the Auto-Analyser machine in the Bio-Chemistry Department in order to club it with the 24-hour Emergency Cell, opened recently, but due to inavailabily of trained manpower the machine has been kept useless. Similar problems bedevil the smooth functioning of two other sophisticated machines installed in the Blood Bank and Anaesthesia Departments.

Sources also added that the Director of Medical Education (DME), who usually purchases machines for GMCH, had bought the Auto-Analyser machine of the 'first generation' category which is an older model when the 'third generation' category machine which costs about Rs.60 lakh should have been purchased (first generation machines cost around Rs. 28 lakh). And as a result the GMCH would need another new machine for wide ranging clinical investigation (for brain cancer patients), said the sources. Thus, knowingly or unknowingly, the DME has fooled the GMCH, they alleged.

There are even more such inactive machines in the GMCH. For instance, the Radiology Department cannot deal with the rush of patients as the system to ensure regular voltage is not in place. One 800 mA X-ray machine of the Siemens Company, costing around Rs 6 to 7 lakh has also been lying inactive for four years, placed inside a big room and kept under lock and key. Another 300mA machine has been inactive since 2000, (it was purchased in the financial year 1994-95). A Siemens portable ME 5085 brand new 300mA machine, bought in January 2001, could not be used for the absence of relevant official documents. One Ultra-Sonography machine which was purchased in 1989-90, is out of order for its defective cables. One Eliser Reader (machine) of the Microbiology Department is also non-functional.

In this context, the GMCH Chief Superintendent said, 'There are at least 50 major machines out of which around 70 percent are in working condition, while 30 percent machines are outdated. These have been in service for more than five years. You should not expect that machines will work forever, just like a car or bike....'

The GMCH was set up in 1960 with only a few departments like the Department of Medicine, Surgery, Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Eye and ENT ,at the premises of Mohendra Mohan Choudhury Hospital, Panbazar. In 1984, the GMCH was shifted to Bhangagarh. At present, it also has several super-specialty departments in the Medicine section, viz. Cardiology, Nephrology, Paediatrics, Dermatology, Endocrinology, Gastroenterology, Tuberculosis and Chest Diseases. The Surgical section has Orthopaedic, Urology, Cardiothoracis, Neuro-surgery and Paediatric Surgery departments. The GMCH authority is all set to open an Intensive Care Unit in the first week of April. Now the big question ahead is : will the GMCH be able to work despite shortage of trained staff ?

GMCH superintendent Dr. B K Barah is confident in saying that the hospital is equipped with sufficient trained machine operators. Justifying his stand Dr. Barah averred that the private hospitals and nursing homes of the city approach the GMCH trained employees to work for them. Obviously, the GMCH has sufficient experienced and trained personnel, he added.

On the contrary, a few physicians alleged that the GMCH is reeling under scarcity of trained manpower. To train the GMCH staff, a technician of city-based Skylab is imparting training to a few GMCH personnel these days and they think this prove the shortage of trained persons with the GMCH at present.

Amar Krishna Paul

CM is the Secret Killer, Speaker to go to Jail : Atul Borah

TGP ties up with BJP; To contest from 25 seats

Guwahati : The Trinamool Gana Parishad (TGP) has tied up with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the ensuing State Assembly election. It has also decided to contest from over 25 seats. Talking to this writer, Mr. Atul Borah, General Secretary, TGP, has unveiled the vital issues, which are likely the poll-planks of the party. The excerpts of the exclusive interview are as followes :

A : The question of recognition comes after the election. One party should get atleast 4 % for the recognition by the Election Commission (EC) . At the time of filings nominations, we will give a plan of three symbols-- first, second, third; as in 1985 they (EC) required, so that the question of recognition does not arise. That is, after getting 4 % votes in polls, the EC will recognise the party. Moreover, we will fight under the banner of TGP, notwithstanding they (EC) will treat us Independent contesters. There are 100 symbols. Out of these symbols, we have chosen 3 symbols. In course of time, we will make them public through the 'press'.

A : They (BJP) have asked us to examine the matter whether we can consider it or not. We told them that it would not be possible for us to fight the Assembly election on 'Lotus'. We won't fight election using their symbol. We will fight polls on our symbol, that means, our 3 symbols. However, we will finalise a common symbol for our candidates. It fact, the BJP had proposed us to think over the matter the day before yesterday.

A : Now it is not possible to give the names of the candidates. Because we requested the BJP. We have discussed and given them the list of constituencies from which we are going to project our TGP candidates. We are planning to contest for around 25 Assembly seats, both in the Brahmaputra Valley and Barak Valley. It is known to everyone that I contest from Dispur and party president Pulakesh Baruah from Borkhetri seats.

A : There were many complaints against Mr. Mahanta. We did raise them in the party (AGP) meetings. My heart says it will take a long time for a detailed discussion. At last, at the end of the year he wanted to project his wife Mrs. Joyshree Mahanta as a contester from Nogaon seat. Then he wanted to do something on his own without discussing with the Cabinet colleagues, without the consent of the Steering Committee. He didn't discuss with the State Committee, he wanted to do on his own capacity. A crucial meeting was held on May 12, 1998 at Dispur, where all AGP legislatives were present. At that time, Mr. Mahanta could not reply properly to the allegations, which were put against him. He, then, adopted a different policy. When I went to Delhi, he had seized my portfolio ( PWD Ministership). Then I was the AGP General Secretary. In fact, the legislature came to a general consensus that Mr. Mahanta must have done with the consent of senior party leader (General Secretary) . Thus, a vast gap between Mahanta and me arose. So, I tendered my resignation from the Cabinet. They had suspended me as well. Now we formed our own party TGP on February 8, 2000.

A : We have decided that we certainly fight the election to a 'Morcha' . But we have not given them any consent that is growing up the 9-party 'Morcha' in which Bhrigu Kr. Phukan is also a member. From the very beginning, we have been speaking to the press that just after the formation of TGP, Narayan Borkataki spoke of the TGP-BJP alliance. We have been discussing with BJP for a poll-alliance. Now how it is possible for us to talk with all sides or both sides ?

Q : Both Mr. Phukan and you were founder leaders of AGP. Both of you departed from Mahanta. What is the difference between Phukan and you ?

A : We ( Phukan and Borah) jointly held a press conference. We said that we were going to from a political party- TGP. He and me were the conveners. We declared this at the Press Club. Then he joined hands with Mr. Digen Borah. One day, it was seen in the newspaper, Phukan said that he was connected with Jatiya Sanmilan. We shook in a sense. Then we convened a meeting at Rabindra Bhawan,Guwahati. Pulakesh Baruah became TGP President and I the General Secretary. We didn't pressurize Phukan too. I don't known the root cause of his departure from us. It will be better to ask him.

A : Now, the biggest problem is corruption. Under the leadership of Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, corruption is going up in full swing. There is 'lunthanraj', mismanagement and misappropriation of money and, hence, the financial health of the state is not sound. Due to Mahanta's fellows, he could not settle any issue. But he has created some new issues. So, after getting into power, we will set up inquiry commissions on all graft charges against him, which had been done for the last two-three years. Apart from this, there are many burning problems in the state like unemployment problem, poor economic condition and disturbed law and order situation. All of these will be covered in our election manifesto. Moreover, we do refute Mahanta's claim that his major achievement was to bring peace to the state. He can't claim so. Secret killing is one of the major problems.

A : Everybody knows that Mr. Mahanta is the man behind all secret killings. He got involved in it . He has created a lot of problems. We can't say that peace prevails in the state. Rather he disturbs peace. Now if you ask an ordinary person he will tell the truth. The truck drivers have to pay Rs. 8,000 to Rs. 10,000 (as gunda tax) as there are over 60 illegal gates in between Srirampur and Guwahati. It's a big thing. It is more war than a law and order situation. Nomal killings are also going on. Secret killings, mass, killings are on too. Everybody says Mahanta is the killer. Yuva Chatra Parishad, AASU, Congress and others put allegations against him, he can never reply properly. People will reply by casting their votes whether he is a secret killer or not.

A : The case is now with the Supreme Court. It is seen in the newspaper that the judgment will come within three weeks. We don't say anything now. We don't want politics out of IMDT controversy. Rather we are adopting wait and watch policy.

Q : What is the position of suit against Assembly speaker ?

A : My petition has been accepted by the Gauhati High Court. We have given many points including the allegations set against Mr. Mahanta and the speaker Ganesh Kutum, published by different newspapers. That is why it was admitted to the Court-- so that the High Court can decide. That much I have done. Now the position rests on the High Court how it proceeds. So, at this juncture, I should not pass any remark. I am very much optimistic that he (Kutum) has to face trials and has to go to jail. I am sure to win in this suit.

Amar Krishna Paul

The 'Greater Bangla' Move : A New Political Issue

The debate that is going on in the net site www.deja.com among a section of Bangladeshi intellectuals has come up as a new political issue in the state, at least to the ruling AGP. An article by Dr. A H Jaffor Ullah (pen name of Abdul Hasanath) has made the proposition, on the basis of similarity of population pattern and geopolitical situation, of creation a confederation comprising Bangladesh, the seven North-Eastern states and West Bengal.

In the proposal it is clearly mentioned that Bangladesh has the work force while Assam has the natural resources and both can prosper if worked for mutual interest. The point was most nearly touches in the seminar held recently in the state under the aegis of Assam Tribune group and the Centre for North-East Studies and Policy Research, titled India's North-East and Bangladesh: Problems and Opportunities. Here Bangladeshi Foreign Secretary Mr.Farook Sobhan said that both Bangladesh and the North-Eastern India has the same problem--economic backwardness--and both can benefit if worked in mutual cooperation. In the same seminar Mr.Mahefuz Alam, the editor of the newspaper Daily Star considered migration as a natural phenomenon and appealed to take a positive attitude to migration.

While AGP has made much fuss over the proposal, the Central Home Ministry thinks it too preposterous to be taken seriously. The debate has come in handy for the AGP to rake up the foreigners' issue on the eve of the forthcoming Assembly elections. The BJP is expected to follow suit. Lets see how Congress paints the issue.

The AASU, as well, has grabbed the issue as another chance to recharge their former heroism. It holds the Central and State governments' failure to check demographic invasion responsible for such a proposal to divide India to form a confederation. The advisor to AASU, Mr. S Bhattacharya, goes one step further in saying that the indigenous people of Assam must choose between two ways lying before them--either surrendering to the designs of Bangladesh or fighting together to thwart such design ; fearing perhaps that Bangladesh's simply proposing will make everything.

We are afraid Mr. Bhattacharya's fear might turn out to be true too. We have seen that most of the political parties are either silent regarding infiltration, or supporting it being silent. And now even Mr. Mahanta, whose main strength for coming to power was the Assam agitation for the detection and deportation of foreigners from Assam, is silent over the issue fearing lest he loses certain votes. So once again the ASSU wants to see if the people of Assam has forgotten AASU's clear hoodwinks during the recent-past politics and whether they will come out once again to 'fight together'.

This issue will provide the militants who are taking shelter in Bangladesh a chance to make their stand clear by the way they react to it.

It is surprising to note that the Central Govt. which is too much concerned with the Kashmir issue, has been silent regarding the infiltration problem of the region which is growing continuously as a threat to the national integrity. It is also negligent to the Assam Governor's report, to the President of India, alarming that the process if not stopped might make Assam a part of Bangladesh. Nor the Centre has paid heed to his series of proposals for the solution of the problem.

The people of Assam has to decide upon their own about the matter. However much the political parties or the political organisations giving birth to political parties show concern about it, people are now no more unaware of their face values. It is only the consciousness of the people and their unprejudiced and balanced decision that can make something, not the face changing leaders.

PRAMATHESH DEKA

Yesterday's landlord is today's beggar

Very few people know that his name is Khinkhiri Bodo. The middle aged businessmen is rather popular as Babu. For the kind of product he deals with, one need not be known by the name. Babu is such a name. In place of Rs 100 - 150 of the labeled product, Babu allows one to cherish one's dreams just for Rs 20. For the regular goer the home-made liquor holds much demand. One kg of Molasses costs almost Rs 20 and one full bottle costs Rs 20 too, and the profit so earned runs the family of six children. This is not a scene from a remote village, but ironically that from the heart of the capital city, the so called gateway to the North- East, Guwahati.

The revenue that the govt. of Assam draws from the foreign liquor is about Rs 80 Cr. Now the capital has a wine shop every one metre. The scene of other towns of the state is not different. Now, the state govt. cannot dare to close these shops for it means a heavy cut in the revenue. Even if these shops are closed, will it help the state to keep dry ? The quantity that these shops sell will perhaps be far exceeded by the quantity sold by people like Babu. Now can people like Babu be stopped from selling it ? And rather will that be justified ? Before these questions be answered two aspects must be considered first--- which area of the city is free from such business, and second what alternative can the state provide for those who live by it.

In Guwahati, the Bodo, Karbi etc. tribes mainly are connected to this business. Today, persons of these casts have occupied high bureacratic posts as well as gone for engineering, medical and other lines. But though being connected to this lower kind of business has brought much criticism to these casts yet their present socio- economic condition will surely justify this profession.

As a result of the heavy migration of non-tribal people to Guwahati during the last part of Ahom reign and during the British rule, and due to encroachment for industrialisation and urbanisation, these tribes lost hundreds of acres of their land. On the other hand, for the reduction in area of agricultural land per head due to the division of land through the generations, and due to the lack of adequate eligibility for govt. jobs, they faced heavy economic hardship and the only alternative left for them was to produce and sell this home-made liquor.  

Though the govt. has reserved 10 % jobs for these tribes, yet in reality they occupy even less than 5 % posts. Due to certain administrative loop-holes and lack of adequate eligibility they have failed to perform as are expected. In 1971 the entire Karbi community had only 3 post graduates and 15 graduates. The statistics of other tribes is almost the same. In the present era of heavy contraction of official jobs and growing competition these tribes without adequate educational qualification and economic background find themselves facing heavy hurdles whether for jobs or for business. The economic tension so evolved has compelled a section of these tribes to go for this cheap dealing. 

The Beltala, Lakhra, Japarigog, foot of the Navagraha hill, Ulubari Kachari Basti, Panjabari, Kahilipara etc. regions of the Guwahati city have large scale selling and buying of the home-made liquor. Among these the families which do not have consumption themselves are really prospering. Members of many such families in the Kachari Basti of Ulubari with their higher educations have established themselves in other fields as well.

But in the Panjabari, Japarigog, Kahilipara etc. areas many Bodo, Karbi families have no other source of income except this. They don't have any other alternative way. Nevertheless, these very people were once upon a time owners of a huge areas of land and were skilled carpenters.

Now the question is, should these people be blamed solely for their activities and if yes then to what extent, how can their plight be improved and who is going to improve their socio-economic condition. Can, or can't, the administrative system be held responsible for this? Can these people be allowed to continue with this backwardness after all ?

ARUP GOSWAMI

On the one hand there is a clamour in Assam against unabated migration from Bangladesh, and on the other, there is a growing urge to establish better trade links with the neighbourers across the border. And both the movements are gathering momentum day by day. This was evident in a symposium held here on Sunday.

The people of North-East India and those of Bangladesh are living side by side, still they are strangers to each other. This is because they do not have good communication and transportation networks. Transportation bottleneck is perhaps the main reason behind the backwardness of both the sides. This was the view expressed by former foreign secretary of Bangladesh, Farook Sobhan.

Participating in a discussion on India's North-East and Bangladesh : Problems and Opportunities, organized jointly by the Assam Tribune Group and the Centre for North-East Studies and Policy Research (New Delhi) at Vivekananda Kendra in the city on Sunday evening, Mr Sobhan said the world was turning into a global village and it was high time for both Bangladesh and the North-East people to rediscover each other and to build up a strong partnership.

Sobhan,who also served as Bangladesh High Commissioner in India, said he was in favour of an open trade between the two regions as both would benefit from this. But open trade demands better transportation networks, be it by land, water or air. " This will reduce carrying cost and minimize our cost of production," he explained.

He also stressed the need for renovating Chitagang Port for cheaper water navigation between the two countries.

Emphasizing the need for starting direct flight services between Guwahati and Dhaka, he said "it takes just 25 minutes to arrive at Guwahati from Dhaka by an aircraft. Unfortunately it took us a day to reach here as there is no direct air link between the north-eastern part of India and Bangladesh."

Sobhan, who has come here as member of a high-level delegation from Bangladesh, said in order to exploit economic potentials and forge better ties, Bangladesh govenment should set up its consulates in Guwahati, Shillong and virtually all important pleaces in the North-east.

He said North-east was rich in energy resources and there was every possibility for Bangladesh to be benefited if it built up long-term relationship with this region.

Drawing examples of Diang and Subanshiri projects, Sobhan said North-east had vast hydro-power potentials and Bangladesh, which was facing power shortage, could purchase electricity from here.

He said Bangladesh was the third largest source of foreign exchange earnings for India. Around 60-70 thousand Bangladeshis visit India annually for business, medical treatment, higher education, tourism etc. India has also the largest number of tourists (around 5,000) from Bangladesh. "Although geographically North-East is closest to Bangladesh but most of them prefer visiting places like Delhi, Calcutta to coming to North-East. This is due to communication hurdles," he pointed out.

Speaking on the same line, editor and publisher of Dakha's widely circulated newspaper Daily Star Mehefuz, Alam said the people of Bangladesh had forgotten their geography. "While others are building relationships on the basis of commonness, we are obstructing. It is a story of lost opportunities," he stated.

" Both Bangladesh and the north-eastern part of India have one thing in common-- economic backwardness. It is this problem that can be turned into an opportunity if both of us come under one umbrella," Alam pointed out.

Speaking on the occasion, chairman of North-East Development Finance Corporation (Nedfi), Dr Jayanta Madhav said poor transportation facilities had been retarding economic progress of North-East since Independence. The only way to link the region with the mainstream of India was to establish navigation route via Bangladesh.

Giving an example, he said that the surface distance between Agartala and Calcutta was 1,560 km , but if one travelled via Bangladesh the distance was only 350 km. He said the distance from Agartala to Chitagang Port was only 75km and if the two countries agreed to use the port for border trade, North-East would be immensely benefited.

Dr Madhav resented, "though we have illegal trade with Bangladesh yet till date there is no official trade agreement with the latter."

Dr Madhav pointed out that "we have an infiltration problem from the neighbouring country and there is a lack of political will to solve it. But considering economic interests, let's forget it and establish better ties."

Vice-president of the SAARC Chambers of Commerce Abdul Mintoo in his speech said economic progress could not be accelerated until people of both the countries cooperated with each other and exchanged their social, cultural and economic values.

Saying "migration" was a natural phenomenon, Mr Mintoo added that nothing could stop it as man had always been in search of a better life and living condition since the beginning of human civilization.

Earlier, welcoming the guests,eminent journalist and management trustee of the Centre for North-East Studies and Policy Research, Sanjoy Hazarika said the idea behind such a discussion was to promote regional cooperation at people's level. He appealed to the people of North-East to think with their heads rather than with their hearts.

 KUNAL  KANTI BHATTACHARJEE

Is All Well With The Asom Sahitya Sabha ?

The Asom Sahitya Sabha is the most important annual event of Assam where people from different walks of life come to celebrate a unique cause--literature--which would make any civilised society proud of their culture and heritage.

The Asom Sahitya Sabha, the premier literary body of the state, and its annual session organised with much fanfare and extravaganza, has led scholars and littérateurs from other parts of the country to comment that there is hardly any state in the country which is devoted to the cause of literature so much as Assam is.

However, the recently concluded 66th session of the Sabha in Dibrugarh amply proved that all is not well with the literary body and the cause it promotes. The new president of the Sabha, Homen Borgohain in his inaugural speech while highlighting the steps that the organisation would take during his tenure, actually enumerated the various ills that are plaguing the literary body.

At the very outset, Borgohain stressed that his top priority would be to free the Sabha from political interference, and as a first step in this direction it should strive to be self-reliant and financially independent which alone could free the Sabha from government patronage and unnecessary political influence. Borgohain's appeal may have been in the right spirit but it appeared to be naive as it was proved within the next few days when a host of political leaders, including Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, descended at the Sabha venue to make their presence as well as their influence felt.

The Sabha, which holds considerable sway over the Assamese society , has always attracted politicians who use it as a convenient platform to gain political mileage.

The Sabha, infact, depends on politicians and government authorities for financial and other infrastructural facilities and unless and until this mutual dependence is completely severed, president Borgohain will have to bear with political interference in the working of the literary body.

Another issue that Borgohain raised during the session, and which has widespread ramifications in the evolution of Assamese society, is the assimilation of other linguistic groups like the Tiwas, Bodos, Mishings, Karbis and others within the folds of the Sahitya Sabha.

Assam Sahitya Sabha is basically identified as an organisation for the Assamese-speaking people of the state and as such other language-speaking groups of the state naturally feel alienated from the body.The well-meaning president may have called for an integration of languages and indigenous groups living in the state, but only time will tell how far this will succeed.

The Dibrugrarh session of the sabha had its embarrassing start up with the invited guest-of-honour, noted Indologist Dr. W L Smith, having to return home without reaching the venue. Smith was annoyed with the organisers for the lack of hospitality shown to him on his arrival in the state. The sabha authorities did apologise to him later but in no way does it compensate for the impression it engraved with the foreign guest.

The session was also beset with several organisational short comings which can be ignored in the long-run, but the larger issues plaguing the literary body and the cause of literature that were raised by the president must be given a thoughtful consideration and concerted efforts must be made to rid the Sabha of these basic problems.

It appears from the ongoing activities that neither Mr. Mahanta nor his party intends to do anything significant to fight corruption and terrorism. Ironically, perhaps AGP does not consider corruption an important issue.

To begin with Mr. Mahanta himself, the 'LOC' scandal is still chasing him. But adopting a soft line, he makes it impossible to take action against corrupt officials. Even in cases where there is adequate evidence, the state government takes long time to take steps. In many cases things are pending for years, the latest being the case of Assam Public Service Commission (APSC) Chairman, Tara Pada Das. The income tax officials raided his house and seized handsome cash and illegal assets. Although Mr. Das has resigned from his office, what is surprising is that the government has not initiated any legal prosecution and the Income Tax Department is taking an excruciatingly long time in completing investigation. The popular opinion now is that Mr. Das would perhaps get a free go. We are too familiar with the nexus between the political masters and the top brass in the government and it is likely that the govt. does not exercise sufficient care while appointing an officer for a prestigious post whose probity is not beyond doubt.

Coming to economic side, the state is grappled with severe financial crunch. Peace and development that have eluded the Assamese for a decade is the focal point for the people from all walks of life. The faction ridden state government has been unable to come to grips with rampant corruption in its various department. The nexus between politicians and the militant organizations is virtually holding the state to ransom. The unholy association has made the task of security personnel fighting and disarming the insurgents virtually difficult.

The only persons gaining from the situation are the criminals and the corrupted, the latest instance of which was witnessed recently - Killing of innocent Hindi speaking people - which is bound to send an absolutely wrong signal to the outsiders. Today the state has withered away. As a result of serious disorders, the very lives of those holding the reins of power are in danger, nothing to say of the common citizen. If this situation continues chaos and anarchy lie ahead for Assam.

The sense of insecurity among ordinary masses is more than obvious. In the absence of good governance, almost all of them have adopted the path of least resistance against malpractices. The 'Assam Pradesh Congress Committee' (APCC) has already demanded imposition of President's Rule in the state. But, mere imposition of President's rule cannot be the panacea for the lingering problem of insurgency in Assam or in other parts of the North -East. Years of neglect, external interference by way of support to the militants from Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan, a nexus between politicians and the militants have gone a long way in crippling the economic and social base of the entire North-Eastern region. So far, no headway can be made on political fronts to settle the vexed insurgency problem and mounting operations of United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) , National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), Bodo Liberation Tiger (BLT), Muslim United Liberation Tiger Force of Assam (MULTA), and United People's Democratic Solidarity (UPDS), which recently gunned down eight Hindi-speaking people in Karbi Anglong Hills district, under the helping hands of Pakistan's Inter Service Intelligence (ISI). All these disproves Chief Minister Mahanta's claim of 'normalcy' in the state and zero tolerance for terrorism.

Not only this, today the state is heading for complete bankruptcy. Corruption is all pervasive in the state and the government is even unable to pay salary to its employees timely. The latest being the case of state-owned Assam State Transport Corporation (ASTC), where employees are on a hunger strike for the last one month demanding immediate payment of their salaries which have not been paid for the last nine months. The most severe victims are the teachers. A large number of them are getting their one-month salary after a three-four months period. In some cases, salaries remain unpaid for six months or more. With siphoning of money from central funds by the ministers, illegal appointments over the years, non-payment of pensions, salaries and contractor's bill have become a regular feature.

The unemployment mark is rising at an alarming rate in the state. And with all sorts of recruitment being stopped officially, the State Public Service commission today has virtually no role to play.

Failure of the state govt. to finance properly various projects also disturbed the development process of the state. Failure to pump in funds leaves many development projects including the most sought after gas- cracker project in limbo. A severe fund crunch that almost stifled the developmental works, coupled with a low-gear industrialization, almost kept the State's economy with the confines of stagnation.

With the first assembly polls of the millennium for the state hardly a couple of months away, the ruling AGP-led coalition alliance is showing clear signs of cracks and strained relationships of late.

While the United People's Party of Assam (UPPA) leader and a state cabinet minister Abdul Muhib Mazumdar voiced his dissatisfaction with AGP over some differences long time back, the CPI (M), another key partner in the government, recently served a virtual ultimatum on the AGP for clearing the latter's stand in regard to its dealings with the BJP.

CPI ( M) which is trying to erect steadfastly a 'third front' of political alternative for the national level, has an one-point agenda for the coming polls---defeat BJP and congress at all costs by putting up all necessary efforts for the purpose.

So, Sri Prakash Karat, top CPI (M) leader who was in the city (Guwahati) recently for addressing a state-level rally of the party, literally asked the AGP for clarifying its stand over BJP.

Not content with AGP's tacit overtures to the BJP of late for hope of forming the next government and also for its failure in solving popular grievances of the state's masses have prompted CPI (M) to review their relationship with AGP.

"The voting in favour of the BJP- led NDA government in the Rajya Sabha over the Ayodhya issue some time back did not go very well with us and AGP better come out with a convincing justification for the action," Sri Karat later told the press.

"Besides, further continuation of the alliance with AGP will actually depend upon AGP's agreeing or not to our line of 'defeat BJP and Congress' agenda in a straightforward manner without leaving any scope for duplicity later on," Sri Karat added.

Significantly enough, the CPI (M) salvo was fired just in time for the AGP's convention at Nagaon that began on January 29. This convention is expected to discuss in detail issues like poll alliance, manifesto for polls and the general poll strategy, among others. This convention also assumes significance as Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was re-elected as the president.

Meanwhile all the political parties (both national and regional) have begun their active political warm up exercises for conditioning their cadres for the coming polls.

The CPI (M) already held its state-level rally which was the culmination of a series of meetings and rallies throughout the state spread over a month. About a fortnight ago the CPI also held its conventions for the purpose.

The Nationalist Congress party (NCP)'s state committee held a mass rally at Guwahati on January 31 for recharging its supporters to in the pre-election run up.

However, for BJP's state committee particularly a dampener was put on its ambitions of the pre-poll run up by the sudden cancellation of Union Home Minister L K Advani's visit to the state causing quite a few red faces in the state committee leadership in the process.

It seems that the parties have come to the consciousness of their duties and responsibilities towards the voters only now after a deep slumber for the whole year. But the issues being taken up will perhaps just do the routine work. Flood control and better flood damage management, lifting of ban of state government jobs appointments etc. are the major and popular issues for most of the parties.

It remains to be seen how the voters will react actually to the political banter that has already began in right earnest in the state. The politicians are almost promising the stares of the sky to the voters in about three months' time. It will be interesting who can hoodwink the masses once again and form the government to forget all promises for another five years.

Of late, P.K. Mahanta-led Assam government has unveiled a self-employment plan on the line of Prime Minister's Rojgar Yojana (PMRY). The newly launched scheme is named: Chief Minister's Swaniyojana Yojana, 2000- 2002 . Financial increments for this plan will be to the tune of Rs. 161.79 crores of which loan component for the beneficiaries from the banks and other allied financial institutions is Rs. 91.43 crores for the balance amount, assistance from the centre will be sought. It is expected that about 39,406 direct employment will be generated through implementation of the new sub plans. Indirect employment to the time of 30,660 will also be generated.

But the is not easy at all. It is indeed, a "Difficult mission " for the state itself. The reason is not far to seek . The state has to recover a huge sum of doubtful debts to different banks as it acted the role of a guarantor in releasing loans to rehabilitate many surrendered ultras. There are also reports of a number of defaulting cases under different self employment plans such as PMRY, Swarna Jayanti Sahari Rojgar Yojana (SJSRY), Swarna Jayanti Gram Swarojgar Yojana (SGSY) and so on. Now the success of the newly - introduced scheme will largely depend on the response to it from the end of various financial institutions, and of course, from the Union government's side . Reasonably , a lion's share of the scheme fund will be supplied by the Centre and banks.

According to the Assam government's draft paper on this scheme, the number of unemployed youths registered in the states employment exchanges till October 1999 is 16.35 lakh, of which the number of educated unemployed youths stands at a staggering 13.87 lakh. Again the total number of unemployed youths till July, 2000 is 16.14 lakh.

The draft paper puts : "Live registers of employment exchanges had 12.39 lakh job seekers in 1995 which increased to 14.96 lakh in 1997; 16.19 lakh in 1998 and 16.35 lakh in 1999. This indicates a growth of 31.96% from 1995 to 1999".

"There is a strong tendency for the educated unemployed to seek government jobs. But the government sectors itself has reached a saturation point" the paper said.

"This high rate of unemployment at present in the state particularly among the educated youths has not only led to a lot of dissatisfaction among them, but has also contributed to the problems of insurgency and militancy", the draft paper stated .

It further said, "To arrest this situation, some thrust areas has been identified for providing self-employment to the unemployed persons in the coming two years, i.e. the remaining period of the Ninth Finer Year Plan (2000-2002). The areas are agriculture, fisheries, rural development industries and commerce, handloom and textile, sericulture, khadi & village industries, tourism, transport and public distribution system" .

It follows from above that the state government has chalked out some commendable initiatives for generating self employment during the period between 2000-2002 . However, the implementation process is in limbo . Both the central government and banks are yet come out with a helping hand and make their response public .

Meanwhile, experts viewed that the Mahanta government tried to please people on the eve of (ensuing ) Assembly polls . Whatsoever, the scheme can usher in a new era in the state if the beneficiaries are properly selected and they recover their debts in time by bringing a fresh air of entrepreneurship here . Then their mission will no more be a tough task, but an easy one too .